What most of us want to avoid in this life are regrets.
The words you never shared, the words you shouldn't have shared; the things you didn't do, the things you did.
Some of us may stare at the Wikipedia page for cognitive biases, and send up prayers in hopes that we'll sidestep the missteps that seem inherent to being a human being.
One way we try to avoid those 'oh no' outcomes is with second-order thinking. If you're unfamiliar, it simply means keeping in mind the potential consequences of the consequences of your actions.
It's like looking at what might happen with the 5th domino after you knock the initial one down, to see if you should knock over any to begin with.
But the ways of assessing this kind of risk have seemed unwieldy to me.
The 10-10-10 rule has been tossed out there as a way to assess the consequences of consequences, but I wanted something that simple but a little more comprehensive.
I prefer expanding it a bit into what I'll call 10 x 5:
- How will you feel about this/see this/think about this:
- 10 minutes from now
- 10 hours from now
- 10 days from now
- 10 months from now
- 10 years from now
You can quickly scan through those five questions in your head, before you make a decision.
Where you want to really watch for danger, though, are in those last two: 10 months from now -- 10 years from now.
If the outcome seems potentially bad in either of those two, do some additional self-questioning:
What would need to be true (wwntbt) to fail to avoid regrets resulting from this decision?
Work backwards with that question, and see if any of those potential dangers are avoidable. If they're not, maybe don't risk it.
An additional question to ask, though, is: What would need to be true (wwntbt) for me to have the worst possible outcome with x?
List out the answers, and then ask if your potential course of action can lead to any of those things.
Final Thoughts
As they say, perfect is the enemy of good.
And I'll say: you'll never be completely prepared and risk-free, no matter how much safeguarding you do. Everyone's Wile E Coyote will run under at least one anvil in their lives.
But here's to the anvils we might possibly avoid by being just a bit more cautious and prepared.